Daily FX Commentary, December 2, 2011
Friday, December 2, 2011 at 4:44PM
By Warren Hayhoe,
Columnist, Canadian Money Magazine
Expected USD/CAD range: 1.0050-1.0175
Expected GBP/CAD range: 1.5855-1.5980
Expected EUR/CAD range: 1.3620-1.3745
Expected GBP/USD range: 1.5620-1.5775
Expected EUR/USD range: 1.3415-1.3575
Expected USD/JPY range: 77.50-78.20
Oil opened at $100.20 currently $101.20Gold opened at $ 1735.30, currently $1755.50
Morning Observations:
Canadian jobs numbers disappointed for the second month in a row as Stats Can reported Canada losing 18.6K jobs in the month of November (employment change charted below). The full-time/part-time split served to soften the blow a little bit at +34k/-53k but all told the Loonie is off half a cent from its pre-number high. By region Quebec was the standout, shedding over 30K jobs themselves, which was offset by a good month for Ontario who added 16K. From here all eyes turn to what is expected to be very good US employment numbers at 8:30am. The ‘official’ consensus is somewhere around 125K new jobs for the month of November but there is a lot of talk about +200k. Equity markets are certainly of this mindset as the futures market is up well over 1% from yesterday’s close.
Taking a step back to Europe (you didn’t think I could go a commentary without talking about Europe did you?) where more talk of ECB lending via an IMF proxy is gaining some credibility. The DAX is moving higher as I type, pulling the EURUSD well through 1.3500 and aside from the US jobs number it feels like this may be the topic that moves markets today ahead of the European dues ex machine next week. That being said today has that buy the rumour sell the fact feel to it, and if we do get a good number at 8:30am I’ll be a buyer of USDCAD in anticipation of Europe disappointing next week and risk going lower. Expected range in USDCAD: 1.0050-1.0175
Thought of the Day
“A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice.”
Bill Cosby
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