Daily FX Commentary, November 3, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011 at 3:15PM
By Warren Hayhoe,
Columnist, Canadian Money Magazine
Expected USD/CAD range: 1.0050-1.0250
Expected GBP/CAD range: 1.6100-1.6225
Expected EUR/CAD range: 1.3850-1.4050
Expected GBP/USD range: 1.5950-1.6075
Expected EUR/USD range: 1.3700-1.3875
Expected USD/JPY range: 77.00-79.00
Oil opened at $92.51 currently $93.21Gold opened at $ 1730.60, currently $1757.45
Morning Observations:
Ambiguity surrounding the Greek referendum continues to provoke substantial swings in global markets. First it’s on, then it is off because PM Papa lost majority, but he’s not resigning, wait, yes he is. It is enough to make you head spin but as of this second (depending on who you read) it looks like Papandreou is out and risk is on! The euro, which came under selling pressure overnight primarily against the CHF and JPY has rebounded and is currently trading over 1.3800 again against the US dollar. The ECB still has their rate announcement today which is due at 8:45am; the street has the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at 1 in 3. I always cheer for the underdog and am calling for a cut as a little monetary easing is desperately needed. Out just ahead of the ECB announcement are US unemployment claims, followed by ISM manufacturing figures at 10:00am. Equity markets are up some 3-4% from their lows earlier this morning and the better sentiment has depressed USDCAD down to 1.0100. Support today comes in at 1.0098 (38.2% fib) and 1.0067 (55DMA). Watch for the ECB decision and Greek headlines to direct sentiment and the dollar today. After the European close at 1:00pm EST today we should get pretty quiet ahead of NFP numbers tomorrow morning. We prefer the risk/reward of buying in the dips, expected range in USDCAD: 1.0050-1.0200
Thought of the Day
“Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”
Confusius
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