Daily FX Commentary, September 3, 2010
Friday, September 3, 2010 at 11:09AM
By Warren Hayhoe,
Columnist, Canadian Money Magazine
USD/CAD 1.0555
GBP/CAD 1.6264
EUR/USD 1.2835
GBP/USD 1.5410
CAD/EUR 1.3550
JPY/CAD 80.00
Oil opened at $75.02, currently $74.40
Gold opened at $1252.10, currently $1252.50
CRB closed at 271.15, +2.64
Morning Observations:
All eyes will be on the US jobs report this morning at 8:30am. First the bad news; the number will likely show that they shed 100K jobs in August which will push their unemployment rate up to 9.6%. Secondly, and more importantly will be what the private sector produces, since it is seen as a better barometer of the overall economy. Consensus is that 50-80K new jobs were added to the private sector, attributed to cheap money and ample supply of labor.
Overnight, most markets are relatively subdued ahead of the headline number at 8:30am. Commodity and equity markets are a little better than where we left them yesterday, while currency markets have all remained in very tight ranges. Don’t forget that a little later today the US ISM non-manufacturing number is being released as well. The sister report (detail) outpaced predictions, and expectations for this number are already high.
The good feeling permeating markets these past couple days will be hard to dispel, so the numbers today will have to be truly awful to cause any real sell off. If that happens, then all bet are off, however the more likely scenario of a mediocre number will be enough to maintain confidence and bring the fence sitters into the bullring. The expected range in USDCAD today if the number comes out anywhere close to expectations: 1.0475-1.0575.
Thought of the Day
“Money can't buy love, but it improves your bargaining position.” -- Christopher Marlowe
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